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Published on giugno 23rd, 2022 | by Eurasia News

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Who is a primary winner in the emerging food crisis?

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, international grains prices, especially wheat, corn and sunflower, have soared. The circumstance has abruptly aggravated the already serious shortage of grains due to frequent droughts and other adverse climatic variations, now developing into a global food crisis. According to the U.N. World Food Program, 49 million people in the developing world are falling into peril of famine, manifested by riots and protestations in Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Pakistan, Peru, and by destabilizing dynamics in the Sahel, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Chad, among others[2].

To be noted, Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters that together supply some 30% of global wheat exports. The West has imposed severe economic sanctions on Russia, especially the exclusion of the country from the SWIFT, or a dominant on-line system for U.S. dollar-based international settlement, that impedes the country from exporting. Besides, the Western governments and mainstream media are denouncing Moscow for minelaying against major ports in the Black and Azov Seas, especially Mariupol and Odessa

Yet, such minelaying against the port of Mariupol is at least self-inflicting for Russia, as a significant portion of Russia’s grain exports also depends on the port’s capacity and secure sealines of communications in the two Seas[3], Thus, Moscow surely finds it most rational to keep Mariupol mine-free, while, with its significant superior naval power, putting naval blockade against Ukraine’s naval operations, replenishment and trade with strategic implications.

On the other hand, Ukraine will find itself compelled to take an anti-access denial strategy against Russia’s naval power, by actively employing sea mines as well as coastal defense cruise missiles[4]. This is because Ukraine’s naval power is highly inferior to that of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Also, its counter-amphibious assault land and air power are also very limited, especially at the initial phase of the war when the country had to fight in international isolation without any substantial military assistance and arms transfer. In early March, Belarus President Lukashenko inadvertently showed a classified map on Russia’s military plan to attack Ukraine, including amphibious assaults against Odessa[5].

Such a strategy has become obvious and turned out somewhat effective in the mid-April when Ukraine used its home-grown anti-ship cruise missile, Neptune, to have successfully sunk the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, Moskva, with assistance of the U.S. military intelligence to locate and target the ship at the offshore of Odessa.

Most plausibly, therefore, it may be Ukrainian troops that have laid mines against possible Russia’s amphibious assaults aimed to occupy Mariupol and Odessa. Given close intelligence cooperation between Washington and Kiev, the minelaying was likely done according to the advice of U.S. military intelligence.

No wonder, Moscow attributes the minelaying to Kiev[6], and has swiftly de-mined the Mariupol port while securing safe passage open through the Azov Sea[7] In reality, Kiev remains reluctant to de-mine for setting up protected corridors[8].
Amid the intense interplay of war propaganda and counter-propaganda, West’s denunciation against Russia’s minelaying has hardly turned out be cogent in the BRICS and other major developing nations that have not partaken in U.S-led Western economic sanction against Russia.  In response to growing international pressure, Moscow says that, if the West lifts its economic sanctions, it is now ready to lift its blockade against seven Ukrainian ports, including Odessa and set up protected sea corridors for international shipping[9]. Currently, Moscow and Ankara are gearing up for talks to realize these corridors in the Black Sea[10].

In the evolving global food crisis, the developing world will largely welcome Russia’s move to fill the supply gap, especially because the country expects a large grain harvest to support higher exports this year[11].

Consequently, the West faces a dilemma. If the West decides to lift the current sanctions, that will constitute a confirmation of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, accelerating the weakening of the existing liberal international order. Conversely, if the West chooses to continue the sanctions, that will deepen the emerging food crisis and the instability of many developing countries, pushing them away toward authoritarianism and further weakening the international order. Then, for grains imports from Russia, developing countries will have to rely on an alternative on-line system for international settlement, most probably, China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) that has seen a gradual and steady growth in the networking, in tandem with many infrastructure building projects under the Bridge and Road Initiatives across the developing world

Most importantly, such a plausible outcome involves significant risks to further weaken the key currency role of the U.S. dollar as an essential base of the U.S. economic hegemony and the U.S.-led international order. This is particularly so because the U.S. Federal Reserve is about to launch a full-scale quantitative tightening that will involve a devastative effect on the deepening structural vulnerabilities of the U.S. national economy ridden with huge cumulative federal debts.

Thus, it is China that will probably get most out of the ongoing politics of a global food crisis, while pulling Russia more onto its geo-economic orbit. Now the West has to reconstruct a comprehensive approach to the Ukraine war, by overcoming its myopic attention to the military dimension.

Masahiro Matsumura 

About the author:
Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura is Professor of International Politics and National Security, Faculty of Law, St. Andrew’s University (Momoyama Gakuin Daigaku). He is Member of IFIMES Council.

• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura: Who is a primary winner in the emerging food crisis? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/who-is-a-primary-winner-in-the-emerging-food-crisis/5055?
• Video ● The lecture by Prof. Dr. Hüseyi̇n Bağcı: Türkiye and The Middle East after Arab Spring /Arap Baharından sonra Türkiye ve Ortadoğu https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JlJNmxT814&t=200s
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 5; etc. https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/putins-war-5-etc/5054?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Milan Jazbec:The philosophy of the preamble to the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/the-philosophy-of-the-preamble-to-the-vienna-convention-on-diplomatic-relations/5048?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: China – a political view https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/china-a-political-view/5047?
• Link (SLO): Sporočilo za javnost ● Diplomacija v prizmi: Izbrani članki 1990-2021 https://www.ifimes.org/sl/sporocila-za-javnost/diplomacija-v-prizmi-izbrani-clanki-1990-2021/5046?
• Link (ENG): Press release ● Diplomacy in Focus: Selected Articles 1990 – 2021 https://www.ifimes.org/en/press-releases/diplomacy-in-focus-selected-articles-1990-2021/5044?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● China’s Economic Development: A Successful Model in the Rise of Nations https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/chinas-economic-development-a-successful-model-in-the-rise-of-nations/5043?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● The Chinese Dragon in the Middle East: More Strategic Partnerships and Cooperation https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/the-chinese-dragon-in-the-middle-east-more-strategic-partnerships-and-cooperation/5042?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Parliamentary elections: Slovenia between Brussels and Budapest https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-parliamentary-elections-slovenia-between-brussels-and-budapest/5041?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Recontextualization of Ukraine (Return of the Wir wussten nicht) https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/recontextualization-of-ukraine-return-of-the-wir-wussten-nicht/5040?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Parlamentarni izbori 2022: Slovenija između Brisela i Budimpešte https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/parlamentarni-izbori-2022-slovenija-izmedu-brisela-i-budimpeste/5038?
• Povezava (SLO): Analiza●Državnozborske volitve 2022: Slovenija med Brusljem in Budimpešto https://www.ifimes.org/sl/raziskave/drzavnozborske-volitve-2022-slovenija-med-brusljem-in-budimpesto/5037?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura ● Unmasking War Propaganda against Russian Aggression: An Investigative Approach https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/unmasking-war-propaganda-against-russian-aggression-an-investigative-approach/5039?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr. Alexander G. Savelyev & Olga M. Alexandria: What Factors Affect Strategic Stability? Russian Experts’ Assessments https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/what-factors-affect-strategic-stability/5036?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Branko Perić ● BiH Judiciary: How the politics destroyed independence https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/bih-judiciary-how-politics-destroyed-independence/5035?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Branko Perić ● Pravosuđe u Bosni i Hercegovini: Kako je politika uništavala nezavisnost https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/pravosude-u-bosni-i-hercegovini-kako-je-politika-unistavala-nezavisnost/5028?
• Video (BSH): Predavanje Josipa Juratovica (SPD): Nova politika SR Njemačke u jugoistočnoj Europi 11-4-2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH7j55fQqpQ&t=102s
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Leyla Mammadova: Europe: Of Status Qua and (Climate) Change https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/europe-of-status-qua-and-climate-change/5034?
• Link (ENG): Invitation • Lecture by Josip Juratovic (SPD): New policy of FR Germany in the South East Europe, on Monday, 11 April 2022, at 18.00, https://www.ifimes.org/en/events/lecture-by-josip-juratovic-spd-new-policy-of-fr-germany-in-the-south-east-europe/5031?
• Povezava (SLO): Vabilo • Predavanje Josipa Juratovica (SPD): Nova politika ZR Nemčije v jugovzhodni Evropi, ponedeljek, 11. aprila 2022, ob 18.00 uri, https://www.ifimes.org/sl/dogodki/predavanje-josipa-juratovica-spd-nova-politika-zr-nemcije-v-jugovzhodni-evropi/5033?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● General (Rtd) Corneliu Pivariu: Ukraine 2022:The war in Ukraine or “the special military operation in Ukraine”? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/ukraine-2022-the-war-in-ukraine-or-the-special-military-operation-in-ukraine/5030?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-serbia-elections-in-the-shadow-of-pressures-ukraine-crisis-and-kosovo/5029?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Srbija 2022: Izbori u znaku pritisaka, ukrajinske krize i Kosova https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/srbija-2022-izbori-u-znaku-pritisaka-ukrajinske-krize-i-kosova/5026?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 4 https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/putins-war-4/5027?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Emanuel Pietrobon & Juan Martin G. Cabañas: 2022 Ukraine: Ukraine in the third world war in pieces https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-ukraine-ukraine-in-the-third-world-war-in-pieces/5025?
• Link (ENG): Press release: Albanian President Ilir Meta received Director of IFIMES Zijad Bećirović https://www.ifimes.org/en/press-releases/albanian-president-ilir-meta-received-director-of-ifimes-becirovic/5022?
• Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost: Albanski predsjednik Ilir Meta primio direktora IFIMES-a Zijad Bećirovića https://www.ifimes.org/ba/saopstenja-za-javnost/albanski-predsjednik-ilir-meta-primio-direktora-ifimes-a-becirovica/5023?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Ukraine: Is a new and different world order being created? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-ukraine-is-a-new-and-different-world-order-being-created/5021?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Stvara li se novi i drugačiji svjetski poredak? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/ukrajina-2022-stvara-li-se-novi-i-drugaciji-svjetski-poredak/5015?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Anna Lia Maria Soddu: Environmentally forced migrations in the European policy framework https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/environmentally-forced-migrations-in-the-european-policy-framework/5020?
• Link (ENG): Invitation: Round Table Discussion and Launch of the “Asia’s Century” project https://www.ifimes.org/en/events/round-table-discussion-and-launch-of-the-asias-century-project/5017?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 3 https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/putins-war-3/5016?
• Link (ENG): Press release •  Former Albanian President and Prime Minister Prof. Dr. Sali Berisha Director received Director of IFIMES https://www.ifimes.org/en/press-releases/former-albanian-president-and-prime-minister-prof-dr-sali-berisha-director-received-director-of-ifimes/5013?
• Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost • Direktora IFIMES-a primio bivši albanski predsjednik i premijer dr. Sali Berisha https://www.ifimes.org/ba/saopstenja-za-javnost/direktora-ifimes-a-primio-bivsi-albanski-predsjednik-i-premijer-dr-sali-berisha/5012?
• Link (SLO): Sporočilo za javnost • Direktorja IFIMES-a sprejel nekdanji albanski predsednik in premier dr. Sali Berisha https://www.ifimes.org/sl/sporocila-za-javnost/direktorja-ifimes-a-sprejel-nekdanji-albanski-predsednik-in-premier-dr-sali-berisha/5014?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura: Ukraine as Biden’s Sacrificed Pawn: A Mismanagement under the Declining U.S. Hegemony https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/ukraine-as-bidens-sacrificed-pawn-a-mismanagement-under-the-declining-us-hegemony/5011?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/putins-war-2/5008?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putinov rat – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/putinov-rat-2/5009?
• Link (SLO): Analiza ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putinova vojna – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/sl/raziskave/putinova-vojna-2/5010?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Ukraine 2022: A Test for the EU and NATO https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/ukraine-2022-a-test-for-the-eu-and-nato/5005?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Test za EU i NATO https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/ukrajina-2022-test-za-eu-i-nato/5006?
• Link (SLO): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Test za EU in Nato https://www.ifimes.org/sl/raziskave/ukrajina-2022-test-za-eu-in-nato/5007?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Albania: “House of Freedom” vs. Drug cartel https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-albania-house-of-freedom-vs-drug-cartel/5003
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Albanija 2022: “Kuća slobode” protiv narko kartela https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/albanija-2022-kuca-slobode-protiv-narko-kartela/5004?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/putins-war/5000?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Elections in Serbia: Yet another attempt of “assassination of Serbia”? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-elections-in-serbia-yet-another-attempt-of-assassination-of-serbia/4999?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Izbori u Srbiji 2022: Pokušaj ponovnog svojevrsnog “ubijanja Srbije”? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/izbori-u-srbiji-2022-pokusaj-ponovnog-svojevrsnog-ubijanja-srbije/4997?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura: Handling the Ukraine Crisis: A Geopolitical Perspective https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/handling-the-ukraine-crisis-a-geopolitical-perspective/4998?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Ambassador Prof. Dr. Milan Jazbec: After Merkel https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/after-merkel/4996?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● China’s Modern Middle East Strategy: Strengthening Partnerships with Iran and Syria https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/chinas-modern-middle-east-strategy-strengthening-partnerships-with-iran-and-syria/4995?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Konstantin Strigunov & Dr.  Andrei Manoilo: Color revolution in Kazakhstan 2022 https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/color-revolution-in-kazakhstan-2022/4994?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Of Health and Nuclear Holocaust (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome) https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/of-health-and-nuclear-holocaust-intentionality-directionality-and-outcome/4992?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Prof. dr. Anis H. Bajrektarević: Kako izbjeći samouništenje zapada? (Iliti: Doba Isteklih Ljudskih prava) https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/kako-izbjeci-samounistenje-zapada-iliti-doba-isteklih-ljudskih-prava/4993?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: IFIMES II: Population and pollution and urbanisation https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/ifimes-ii-population-and-pollution-and-urbanisation/4991?
• Link (ENG): Press release ● Donald J. Johnston the new President of IFIMES Advisory Board https://www.ifimes.org/sl/sporocila-za-javnost/donald-j-johnston-novi-predsednik-svetovalnega-odbora-ifimes-a/4990?
• Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost ● Donald J. Johnston novi predsjednik Savjetodavnog odbora IFIMES-a https://www.ifimes.org/sl/sporocila-za-javnost/donald-j-johnston-novi-predsednik-svetovalnega-odbora-ifimes-a/4990?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: From ‘non-paper’ to a crawling war https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-bosnia-and-herzegovina-from-non-paper-to-a-crawling-war/4987?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Bosna i Hercegovina 2022: Od ‘non-papera’ do puzajućeg rata https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/bosna-i-hercegovina-2022-od-non-papera-do-puzajuceg-rata/4986?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● Lebanon 2022: The Geopolitics of Water Series, Part Three: Water: a commodity or a human right? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/lebanon-2022-the-geopolitics-of-water-series-part-three-water-a-commodity-or-a-human-right/4985?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Maria Smotrytska: Decarbonisation and Maritime Transhipment lines: Congested South vs Strategic North https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/decarbonisation-and-maritime-transhipment-lines-congested-south-vs-strategic-north/4984?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ●  2022 Serbia: Referendum – Chance for a turning point in judiciary https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-serbia-referendum-chance-for-a-turning-point-in-judiciary/4983?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Srbija 2022: Referendum – šansa za prekretnicu u pravosuđu https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/srbija-2022-referendum-sansa-za-prekretnicu-u-pravosudu/4979?Link (ENG): Press release: Director of IFIMES Zijad Bećirović met with Albanian President Ilir Meta https://www.ifimes.org/en/press-releases/director-of-ifimes-met-with-albanian-president-ilir-meta/4981?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Open Balkan: One voice and an opportunity for all https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2022-open-balkan-one-voice-and-an-opportunity-for-all/4978?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Otvoreni Balkan 2021: Jedan glas i šansa za sve https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/otvoreni-balkan-2021-jedan-glas-i-sansa-za-sve/4973?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: From Delta to Omicron – 2021; year in review https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/from-delta-to-omicron-2021-year-in-review/4977?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Juan Martin Gonzalez Cabañas: The triumph of Boric in Chile and the opportunity for a new regionalism https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/the-triumph-of-boric-in-chile-and-the-opportunity-for-a-new-regionalism/4972?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Unavoidability of Sino-American Rift: History of Strategic Decoupling https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/unavoidability-of-sino-american-rift-history-of-strategic-decoupling/4970?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● Prof. dr. Anis H. Bajrektarević: Post-Corona epilog Sino-Američkog pregrijanog odnosa: Slijedi li promjena igre ili pobjeda? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/post-corona-epilog-sino-americkog-pregrijanog-odnosa-slijedi-li-promjena-igre-ili-pobjeda/4971?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr. Mohamad Zreik ● Lebanon 2021: The Geopolitics of Water Series, Part Two: Water Diplomacy to Deal with the Renaissance Dam Crisis https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/lebanon-2021-the-geopolitics-of-water-series-part-two-water-diplomacy-to-deal-with-the-renaissance-dam-crisis/4969?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● Hellmut Lagos Koller: The Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty (TPNW): Wishful daydream or Historic milestone? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/the-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty-tpnw-wishful-daydream-or-historic-milestone/4968?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● General (Rtd) Corneliu Pivariu: Lebanon – Quo vadis? https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/lebanon-quo-vadis/4967?
• Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2021 Bosnia and Hercegovina: Most brutal attack on truth about Holocaust in XXI century directed and implemented by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ) https://www.ifimes.org/en/researches/2021-bosnia-and-hercegovina-most-brutal-attack-on-truth-about-holocaust-in-xxi-century-directed-and-implemented-by-milorad-dodik-snsd-and-dragan-covic-hdz/4966?
• Link (BSH): Analiza ● BiH 2021: Najbrutalniji napad na istinu o Holokaustu u 21. stoljeću u režiji i izvedbi Milorada Dodika (SNSD) i Dragana Čovića (HDZ) https://www.ifimes.org/ba/istrazivanja/bih-2021-najbrutalniji-napad-na-istinu-o-holokaustu-u-21-stoljecu-u-reziji-i-izvedbi-milorada-dodika-snsd-i-dragana-covica-hdz/4963?
• Link (ENG): https://www.europeanperspectives.org/en International scientific journal “European Perspectives”
• Link (ENG): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=645V9eryieI&t=5s (IFIMES presentation film).

Tags: Aleksander Lukashenko, Azov Seas, Black Sea, BRICS, Burkina Faso, Chad, China, IFIMES, Indonesia, Kiev, Mali, Mariupol, Masahiro MATSUMURA, Odessa, Pakistan, Perù, Russia, Sahel, Sri Lanka, SWIFT, Ukraine

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