Published on giugno 2nd, 2022 | by Eurasia News0
China – a political view
I read Dr Mohamad Zreik interesting and comprehensive article on the growth of China’s economy. It has come a long way since the days of Mao Tse Tung and the days of his communist experiment, the Long March, when millions died. The years, that followed Mao, set the path from which the economy took off and it has succeeded impressively as Dr Zreik writes. The Chinese also really went on a charm offensive, particularly if the country being ‘pursued’ had natural resources requiring to be exploited, e g Africa.
In the last ten years or so, once Xi Jinping became the head of the Party, he strengthened his base, to the extent that after he was completing his two terms as leader as per the constitution, when he would be stepping down, his base was strong enough for him to be considered again, this time as President for life.
In 1997, the British, in accordance with the agreement signed one hundred years earlier, under some duress it has to be said, handed Hong Kong back to China. Hong Kong largely unfettered by government, had developed into a highly successful trading hub and the citizens were somewhat apprehensive of the future under the hand of China. They managed to secure a deal for 50 years that said there would be ‘one government, two systems’, which was interpreted as ‘business as usual’ by the Honkies as the people of Hong Kong are called. Unfortunately for them, Xi’s government had been turning more authoritarian if not dictatorial under his direction. It started with Beijing not liking the freedom of the press in Hong Kong and trying to suppress content especially that which was critical of Beijing in any way. That, in turn brought out protests with students and the younger generation demonstrating in very large numbers. Tiananmen square being a remembered case in point. The demonstrations became larger and more riotous and the Chinese response became tougher with some more ardent of the opponents being jailed.
Carrie Lam latterly was appointed head of the legislative assembly (Legco) and she became the voice of Beijing much to protests and grumbles of the people. She has recently stepped aside and her appointed successor, John Lee, a retired police officer, is even more of a hard-liner, emphasising again the dictate of the Chinese government. There is no going back; one can say goodbye to the free-wheeling days of a democratic Hong Kong. Gone is the promise of 50 years with ‘one government, two systems’.
In the past decade, the plight of the 12 million Moslem Uighurs, who live in the western province of Xinjiang, has been brought to the fore although the Chinese authorities have tried to suppress their actions from outside view. The Uighurs are an embarrassment to Beijing and they perceive them as an internal Islamic threat to the Chinese government way, whether they are or not, probably not. They use this as a justification to their persecution of the Uighurs and brainwashing camps in the best Orwellian tradition. Beards and veils are banned.
Over the past few years, the Chinese have taken hold, somewhat by stealth, of the highly strategic Spratly Islands, which boast reserves of hydrocarbons and straddle shipping lanes to Northeast Asia. They have gradually been developing Islands with reclamation of dredged sand and establishing them into military outposts, although they said at the start they would not. These islands, which lie closer to the eastern ASEAN countries – Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei – and which dispute the Chinese claim, and the ASEAN body itself are mildly alarmed at China spreading its reach. Furthermore, the USA is now paying closer attention to China’s ambitions. But possession is nine/tenths of the law as the old saying goes!
In recent days the Solomon Islands, which are based in the western Pacific among the many islands that are based there and historically tended to lean towards Australia signed an agreement with China and sent alarm bells off in Canberra, not that the recent defence pact which goes by the name of AUKUS – Australia, the UK and the US – pleases the Chinese.
With China stepping up their demands on absorbing Taiwan by 2025, the people of Taiwan are rightly concerned. For over 70 years they have managed to follow an independent path, ever since Chiang Kai Shek fled there with his supporters after losing the fight to control China to Mao’s communists in the days following WWII. With US help the country has developed into a prosperous independent state. Now the eyes of Xi are on taking it back under direct authoritarian control, as per Hong Kong, after the Qing dynasty handed over the island of Formosa albeit with reluctance to the Empire of Japan at the treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895, following their war.
Economy is concentrated confidence
Again, in the last few years, China’s economy has grown and with it the confidence this engenders. It has proposed a modern version of the old Silk Road by which China was connected to the countries to the west. Marco Polo, the 13th/14th century merchant and explorer, used this route to link up Venice in the Mediterranean to the Mongol court of Kublai Khan in China. He spent considerable time at the court of the emperor and brought back an understanding of Chinse ways and products to the west.
Xi Jinping raised this opportunity in 2013 as the Belt & Road Initiative but it is slow to take off, understandably as it involves several countries. However, a long goods train has shown that it can be done, a journey time of 4 days between Xian and Rotterdam. It could save considerable time compared with sea transport, but there are many political and relatable administrative questions to be answered first.
The focus had to be changed dramatically, however, when President Vladimir Putin invaded his neighbour, after saying that his war games close to the border with Ukraine should not be interpreted as anything more than that, on 24th February this year. Just before, he attended the beginning of the Winter Olympic Games, held this year at Beijing. He met with Xi to discuss his intentions for the war, or special military operation as he calls it. Putin was convinced that he was going to win quickly and would give that impression. He wanted China to understand that he had to go to war to defend his country and wanted China to watch his back. Having obtained sufficient assurances, he returned to Moscow and ordered the invasion. Now he is still fighting as the Ukrainians have put up unexpected stiff resistance, and NATO countries, although not directly involved since Ukraine is not a member, is helping Ukraine with arms; and mercenaries are also lending their support. A long war is now the threatened outcome with the Russian bear losing and embarrassed. Before that, will Putin survive?
Putin says he was always concerned about having the defence alliance of NATO, which was only put into effect to counter Russian expansion at the end of WWII, against the border with Russia, and Ukraine, rightly fearful of their neighbour’s intentions, had made noises about joining NATO. NATO is now on high alert and other countries are likely to join – Sweden and Finland. Putin now has the very response he was hoping to avoid.
But what can China take from this? China should realise now that for its expansionist aims across the world, little help will come from Russia. They have been tested and found wanting. Xi can now plan accordingly and provided he can resolve his other problems, including his handling of the omicron variation of the coronavirus, which is being watched, for instance by the WHO, he will be free to exercise his plans of which Taiwan is on the medium-term horizon. The one ’good’ thing of the Ukraine situation is that the NATO countries are now awake from their peacetime slumber. Or so we would hope.
Dr J Scott Younger, OBE, is a professional civil engineer; he spent 42 years in the Far East undertaking assignments in 10 countries for WB, ADB, UNDP. He published many papers; he was a columnist for Forbes Indonesia and Globe Asia. He served on British & European Chamber boards and was a Vice Chair of Int’l Business Chamber for 17 years. His expertise is infrastructure and sustainable development and he takes an interest in international affairs. He is an International Chancellor of the President University, Indonesia. He is a member of IFIMES Advisory Board. Lived and worked in Thailand from 1978 to 1983 and visited Burma, Bangladesh and Nepal for projects.
 IFIMES – International Institute for Middle East and Balkan Studies, based in Ljubljana, Slovenia, has Special Consultative status at ECOSOC/UN, New York, since 2018.
 China’s Economic Development: A Successful Model in the Rise of Nations https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: China – a political view https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Press release ● Diplomacy in Focus: Selected Articles 1990 – 2021 https://www.ifimes.org/en/
press-releases/diplomacy-in- focus-selected-articles-1990- 2021/5044?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● China’s Economic Development: A Successful Model in the Rise of Nations https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/chinas-economic- development-a-successful- model-in-the-rise-of-nations/ 5043?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● The Chinese Dragon in the Middle East: More Strategic Partnerships and Cooperation https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/the-chinese-dragon- in-the-middle-east-more- strategic-partnerships-and- cooperation/5042?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Parliamentary elections: Slovenia between Brussels and Budapest https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-parliamentary- elections-slovenia-between- brussels-and-budapest/5041?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Recontextualization of Ukraine (Return of the Wir wussten nicht) https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/ recontextualization-of- ukraine-return-of-the-wir- wussten-nicht/5040?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Parlamentarni izbori 2022: Slovenija između Brisela i Budimpešte https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/parlamentarni- izbori-2022-slovenija-izmedu- brisela-i-budimpeste/5038?
- Povezava (SLO): Analiza●Državnozborske volitve 2022: Slovenija med Brusljem in Budimpešto https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
raziskave/drzavnozborske- volitve-2022-slovenija-med- brusljem-in-budimpesto/5037?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura ● Unmasking War Propaganda against Russian Aggression: An Investigative Approach https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/unmasking-war- propaganda-against-russian- aggression-an-investigative- approach/5039?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr. Alexander G. Savelyev & Olga M. Alexandria: What Factors Affect Strategic Stability? Russian Experts’ Assessments https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/what-factors- affect-strategic-stability/ 5036?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Branko Perić ● BiH Judiciary: How the politics destroyed independence https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/bih-judiciary-how- politics-destroyed- independence/5035?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Branko Perić ● Pravosuđe u Bosni i Hercegovini: Kako je politika uništavala nezavisnost https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/pravosude-u- bosni-i-hercegovini-kako-je- politika-unistavala- nezavisnost/5028?
- Video (BSH): Predavanje Josipa Juratovica (SPD): Nova politika SR Njemačke u jugoistočnoj Europi 11-4-2022 https://www.youtube.com/watch?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Leyla Mammadova: Europe: Of Status Qua and (Climate) Change https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Invitation • Lecture by Josip Juratovic (SPD): New policy of FR Germany in the South East Europe, on Monday, 11 April 2022, at 18.00, https://www.ifimes.org/en/
events/lecture-by-josip- juratovic-spd-new-policy-of- fr-germany-in-the-south-east- europe/5031?
- Povezava (SLO): Vabilo • Predavanje Josipa Juratovica (SPD): Nova politika ZR Nemčije v jugovzhodni Evropi, ponedeljek, 11. aprila 2022, ob 18.00 uri, https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
dogodki/predavanje-josipa- juratovica-spd-nova-politika- zr-nemcije-v-jugovzhodni- evropi/5033?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● General (Rtd) Corneliu Pivariu: Ukraine 2022:The war in Ukraine or “the special military operation in Ukraine”? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/ukraine-2022-the- war-in-ukraine-or-the-special- military-operation-in-ukraine/ 5030?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Serbia: Elections in the shadow of pressures, Ukraine crisis and Kosovo https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-serbia- elections-in-the-shadow-of- pressures-ukraine-crisis-and- kosovo/5029?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Srbija 2022: Izbori u znaku pritisaka, ukrajinske krize i Kosova https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/srbija-2022- izbori-u-znaku-pritisaka- ukrajinske-krize-i-kosova/5026 ?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 4 https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Emanuel Pietrobon & Juan Martin G. Cabañas: 2022 Ukraine: Ukraine in the third world war in pieces https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-ukraine- ukraine-in-the-third-world- war-in-pieces/5025?
- Link (ENG): Press release: Albanian President Ilir Meta received Director of IFIMES Zijad Bećirović https://www.ifimes.org/en/
press-releases/albanian- president-ilir-meta-received- director-of-ifimes-becirovic/ 5022?
- Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost: Albanski predsjednik Ilir Meta primio direktora IFIMES-a Zijad Bećirovića https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
saopstenja-za-javnost/ albanski-predsjednik-ilir- meta-primio-direktora-ifimes- a-becirovica/5023?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Ukraine: Is a new and different world order being created? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-ukraine-is-a- new-and-different-world-order- being-created/5021?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Stvara li se novi i drugačiji svjetski poredak? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/ukrajina-2022- stvara-li-se-novi-i-drugaciji- svjetski-poredak/5015?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Anna Lia Maria Soddu: Environmentally forced migrations in the European policy framework https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/environmentally- forced-migrations-in-the- european-policy-framework/5020 ?
- Link (ENG): Invitation: Round Table Discussion and Launch of the “Asia’s Century” project https://www.ifimes.org/en/
events/round-table-discussion- and-launch-of-the-asias- century-project/5017?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 3 https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Press release • Former Albanian President and Prime Minister Prof. Dr. Sali Berisha Director received Director of IFIMES https://www.ifimes.org/en/
press-releases/former- albanian-president-and-prime- minister-prof-dr-sali-berisha- director-received-director-of- ifimes/5013?
- Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost • Direktora IFIMES-a primio bivši albanski predsjednik i premijer dr. Sali Berisha https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
saopstenja-za-javnost/ direktora-ifimes-a-primio- bivsi-albanski-predsjednik-i- premijer-dr-sali-berisha/5012?
- Link (SLO): Sporočilo za javnost • Direktorja IFIMES-a sprejel nekdanji albanski predsednik in premier dr. Sali Berisha https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
sporocila-za-javnost/ direktorja-ifimes-a-sprejel- nekdanji-albanski-predsednik- in-premier-dr-sali-berisha/ 5014?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura: Ukraine as Biden’s Sacrificed Pawn: A Mismanagement under the Declining U.S. Hegemony https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/ukraine-as-bidens- sacrificed-pawn-a- mismanagement-under-the- declining-us-hegemony/5011?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putinov rat – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
- Link (SLO): Analiza ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putinova vojna – 2 https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Ukraine 2022: A Test for the EU and NATO https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Test za EU i NATO https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
- Link (SLO): Analiza ● Ukrajina 2022: Test za EU in Nato https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Albania: “House of Freedom” vs. Drug cartel https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Albanija 2022: “Kuća slobode” protiv narko kartela https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/albanija-2022- kuca-slobode-protiv-narko- kartela/5004?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: Putin’s War https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Elections in Serbia: Yet another attempt of “assassination of Serbia”? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-elections-in- serbia-yet-another-attempt-of- assassination-of-serbia/4999?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Izbori u Srbiji 2022: Pokušaj ponovnog svojevrsnog “ubijanja Srbije”? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/izbori-u-srbiji- 2022-pokusaj-ponovnog- svojevrsnog-ubijanja-srbije/ 4997?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Masahiro Matsumura: Handling the Ukraine Crisis: A Geopolitical Perspective https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/handling-the- ukraine-crisis-a-geopolitical- perspective/4998?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Ambassador Prof. Dr. Milan Jazbec: After Merkel https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● China’s Modern Middle East Strategy: Strengthening Partnerships with Iran and Syria https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/chinas-modern- middle-east-strategy- strengthening-partnerships- with-iran-and-syria/4995?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Konstantin Strigunov & Dr. Andrei Manoilo: Color revolution in Kazakhstan 2022 https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Of Health and Nuclear Holocaust (Intentionality, Directionality and Outcome) https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/of-health-and- nuclear-holocaust- intentionality-directionality- and-outcome/4992?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Prof. dr. Anis H. Bajrektarević: Kako izbjeći samouništenje zapada? (Iliti: Doba Isteklih Ljudskih prava) https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/kako-izbjeci- samounistenje-zapada-iliti- doba-isteklih-ljudskih-prava/ 4993?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: IFIMES II: Population and pollution and urbanisation https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/ifimes-ii- population-and-pollution-and- urbanisation/4991?
- Link (ENG): Press release ● Donald J. Johnston the new President of IFIMES Advisory Board https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
sporocila-za-javnost/donald-j- johnston-novi-predsednik- svetovalnega-odbora-ifimes-a/ 4990?
- Link (BSH): Saopćenje za javnost ● Donald J. Johnston novi predsjednik Savjetodavnog odbora IFIMES-a https://www.ifimes.org/sl/
sporocila-za-javnost/donald-j- johnston-novi-predsednik- svetovalnega-odbora-ifimes-a/ 4990?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Bosnia and Herzegovina: From ‘non-paper’ to a crawling war https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-bosnia-and- herzegovina-from-non-paper-to- a-crawling-war/4987?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Bosna i Hercegovina 2022: Od ‘non-papera’ do puzajućeg rata https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/bosna-i- hercegovina-2022-od-non- papera-do-puzajuceg-rata/4986?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Mohamad Zreik ● Lebanon 2022: The Geopolitics of Water Series, Part Three: Water: a commodity or a human right? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/lebanon-2022-the- geopolitics-of-water-series- part-three-water-a-commodity- or-a-human-right/4985?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr Maria Smotrytska: Decarbonisation and Maritime Transhipment lines: Congested South vs Strategic North https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/decarbonisation- and-maritime-transhipment- lines-congested-south-vs- strategic-north/4984?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Serbia: Referendum – Chance for a turning point in judiciary https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-serbia- referendum-chance-for-a- turning-point-in-judiciary/ 4983?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Srbija 2022: Referendum – šansa za prekretnicu u pravosuđu https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/srbija-2022- referendum-sansa-za- prekretnicu-u-pravosudu/4979? Link (ENG): Press release: Director of IFIMES Zijad Bećirović met with Albanian President Ilir Meta https://www.ifimes.org/en/ press-releases/director-of- ifimes-met-with-albanian- president-ilir-meta/4981?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2022 Open Balkan: One voice and an opportunity for all https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2022-open-balkan- one-voice-and-an-opportunity- for-all/4978?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Otvoreni Balkan 2021: Jedan glas i šansa za sve https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/otvoreni-balkan- 2021-jedan-glas-i-sansa-za- sve/4973?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr J Scott Younger: From Delta to Omicron – 2021; year in review https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/from-delta-to- omicron-2021-year-in-review/ 4977?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Juan Martin Gonzalez Cabañas: The triumph of Boric in Chile and the opportunity for a new regionalism https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/the-triumph-of- boric-in-chile-and-the- opportunity-for-a-new- regionalism/4972?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic: Unavoidability of Sino-American Rift: History of Strategic Decoupling https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/unavoidability-of- sino-american-rift-history-of- strategic-decoupling/4970?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● Prof. dr. Anis H. Bajrektarević: Post-Corona epilog Sino-Američkog pregrijanog odnosa: Slijedi li promjena igre ili pobjeda? https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/post-corona- epilog-sino-americkog- pregrijanog-odnosa-slijedi-li- promjena-igre-ili-pobjeda/4971 ?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Dr. Mohamad Zreik ● Lebanon 2021: The Geopolitics of Water Series, Part Two: Water Diplomacy to Deal with the Renaissance Dam Crisis https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/lebanon-2021-the- geopolitics-of-water-series- part-two-water-diplomacy-to- deal-with-the-renaissance-dam- crisis/4969?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● Hellmut Lagos Koller: The Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty (TPNW): Wishful daydream or Historic milestone? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/the-nuclear- weapons-ban-treaty-tpnw- wishful-daydream-or-historic- milestone/4968?
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● General (Rtd) Corneliu Pivariu: Lebanon – Quo vadis? https://www.ifimes.org/en/
- Link (ENG): Analysis ● 2021 Bosnia and Hercegovina: Most brutal attack on truth about Holocaust in XXI century directed and implemented by Milorad Dodik (SNSD) and Dragan Čović (HDZ) https://www.ifimes.org/en/
researches/2021-bosnia-and- hercegovina-most-brutal- attack-on-truth-about- holocaust-in-xxi-century- directed-and-implemented-by- milorad-dodik-snsd-and-dragan- covic-hdz/4966?
- Link (BSH): Analiza ● BiH 2021: Najbrutalniji napad na istinu o Holokaustu u 21. stoljeću u režiji i izvedbi Milorada Dodika (SNSD) i Dragana Čovića (HDZ) https://www.ifimes.org/ba/
istrazivanja/bih-2021- najbrutalniji-napad-na-istinu- o-holokaustu-u-21-stoljecu-u- reziji-i-izvedbi-milorada- dodika-snsd-i-dragana-covica- hdz/4963?
- Link (ENG): https://www.
europeanperspectives.org/en International scientific journal “European Perspectives”
- Link (ENG): https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=645V9eryieI&t=5s (IFIMES presentation film)