Esteri

Published on dicembre 25th, 2016 | by Eurasia News

59

RUSSIA E TURCHIA: ALLEATI MA NON TROPPO…

Russia e Turchia più vicine o più lontane, dopo l’attentato di Ankara dove è stato assassinato Andrey Karlov ?russia-turchia-flag

Secondo buona parte della stampa russa, l’uccisione di Andrej Karlov, ambasciatore russo in Turchia, assassinato lunedì sera ad Ankara dal giovane poliziotto Mevlüt Mert Altintas, suggerisce un movente politico inequivocabile, confermato dal proclama in vendetta dell’intervento russo ad Aleppo urlato da Altintas subito dopo l’esecuzione. Il ministro degli Esteri turco Mevlut Cavusoglu era in viaggio verso Mosca, dove insieme ai colleghi iraniano e russo doveva lavorare ad una forma di accordo sul dossier siriano. E la tesi al momento prevalente è quella d’un tentativo di minare la “normalizzazione dei rapporti fra Russia e Turchia” e destabilizzare la mediazione diplomatica sulla crisi ambasciatore-russo-ucciso-ankarain Siria.

Del resto da parte russa si fanno sentire i malumori verso Ankara. Aleksander Koz, corrispondente militare per la “Komsomolskaya Pravda”, ha rilasciato dichiarazioni critiche verso le mancanze del sistema di sicurezza turco, con accuse neanche tanto velate di connivenza. Dopo aver ucciso l’Ambasciatore Karlov con otto colpi sparati da una semiautomatica Sarsilmaz CM9, per 53 secondi Altintas ha potuto urlare davanti alle telecamere senza l’intervento di alcun operatore della sicurezza. Ciò indica, secondo l’esperto, non solo una falla nella catena di controlli per aver consentito l’ingresso all’attentatore, ma anche che al MOSCOW, RUSSIA - DECEMBER 22, 2016: Russia's President Vladimir Putin (C) pays last respects to Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrei Karlov during a farewell ceremony at the offices of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Karlov was shot dead in the Turkish capital, Ankara, on December 19, 2016. Alexei Nikolsky/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS Ðîññèÿ. Ìîñêâà. 22 äåêàáðÿ 2016. Ïðåçèäåíò ÐÔ Âëàäèìèð Ïóòèí (â öåíòðå) íà öåðåìîíèè ïðîùàíèÿ ñ ïîñëîì ÐÔ â Òóðöèè Àíäðååì Êàðëîâûì â çäàíèè ÌÈÄ ÐÔ. Àëåêñåé Íèêîëüñêèé/ïðåññ-ñëóæáà ïðåçèäåíòà ÐÔ/ÒÀÑÑmomento in cui ha aperto il fuoco la sala stessa non fosse presidiata: una mancanza che sembrerebbe forse intenzionale per consentirgli almeno di esplicitare a voce le ragioni del gesto omicida. D’altronde, nel motivare il suo gesto subito dopo l’omicidio, l’attentatore ha di fatto espresso la medesima posizione che Erdogan ha sostenuto fino al golpe dell’estate scorsa. Fino a quel momento, infatti, la Turchia lavorava contro la Russia per scalzare Assad e chiedeva costantemente che Al-Nusra fosse riconosciuta come un legittimo gruppo della resistenza al regime. Soltanto dopo il fallito golpe, complice la crisi con l’occidente, il Sultano si è riavvicinato a Vladimir Putin, trovandosi stretto fra i suoi sostenitori islamisti che vorrebbero proseguire la linea dura contro Damasco e Mosca. Secondo Nikolay Kozhanov, affiliato al Programma Russia-Eurasia di Chatham House, le ipotesi d’una pista russian-foreign-minister-sergey-lavrov-right-and-turkeys-foreign-minister-mevlut-cavusoglu“gulenista” da parte di Erdogan sono un tentativo maldestro di rovesciare sempre su Gulen o sui curdi le contraddizioni del fronte islamista interno. In una intervista rilasciata al giornale italiano “Il Foglio”, lo stesso Kozhanov si dice d’accordo con la tesi che l’obiettivo politico dell’attentato è indebolire la ripresa dei rapporti Mosca-Ankara, ma che questa non risulterà formalmente indebolita. “Il Cremlino cercherà di mostrare che non esiste una opposizione islamista ‘moderata’ in Siria, e di sfruttare al massimo la condanna internazionale dell’omicidio per avere carta bianca in Siria, nonché per trovare una lingua comune con l’Europa contro il terrorismo“, sostiene Kozhanov. Con la Turchia, i rapporti dovrebbero non conoscere un peggioramento formale, ma nutrirsi sotterraneamente di un accresciuto grado di diffidenza da parte di Mosca.mosca-dice-addio-a-karlov-ma-ira-putin-tuttaltro-che-sepolta

Si è trattato di un attentato pianificato, volto a minare i rapporti tra Mosca e Ankara. Ma il gioco non riuscirà“, ha dichiarato ufficialmente il ministro degli Esteri russo Sergey Lavrov. “Una provocazione, per far deragliare le relazioni russo-turche e il processo di pace in Siria“, aveva già detto Vladimir Putin subito dopo il gesto omicida e ribadito ieri durante la sua conferenza stampa annuale al Cremlino, ribadendo che Mosca farà di tutto per sviluppare i rapporti con Ankara. Il presidente della Federazione Russa ha inoltre sottolineato l’importanza della cooperazione fra Turchia, Russia e Iran per la soluzione della crisi siriana. La liberazione di Aleppo, secondo le parole del presidente, è stata “l’operazione umanitaria più grande della storia, davresa possibile grazie alla Russia“.

Appare comunque evidente che l’omicidio di Karlov si è consumato in un clima di tensione che mostra quanto l’ostilità anti-russa sia radicata in Turchia proprio in quelle frange che hanno costituito lo zoccolo duro del consenso a Erdogan. Meno di una settimana prima dell’assassinio di Karlov, il 13 dicembre, i Consolati Generali di Russia e Iran a Istanbul e la stessa Ambasciata russa di Ankara sono stati quasi presi d’assalto da folle di manifestanti che issavano le bandiere dell’Esercito Libero Siriano e intonavano slogan contro Putin e Assad. Il fatto che in tale clima non si sia russian-president-vladimir-putin-believes-that-russia-should-create-its-own-national-rating-agency-he-said-at-the-annual-news-conference-on-fridayprovveduto a un rafforzamento delle misure di sicurezza in occasione dell’uscita pubblica dell’Ambasciatore russo è eloquente della fragilità del sistema turco e della scarsa fiducia che Mosca gli riserverà.

Insomma tempo fa il presidente turco Recep Tayyip Erdogan aveva invitato la Russia a “non giocare con il fuoco“, ci sembra però che con “il fuoco” ora ci stia “giocando” lui e con altissime probabilità di bruciarsi politicamente, soprattutto se non riuscirà a fare chiarezza nelle posizioni internazionali assunte dal suo Paese.

RED



Доверяй, но проверяй.

Еще Петр I говорил: “Троим не верь: бабе не верь, турку не верь, непьющему не верь”. После того, как турецкие ВВС сбили российский военный самолет (на сирийской территории), и a-coffin-with-a-body-of-killed-russian-ambassador-to-turkey-andrei-karlov-is-carriedпрезидент страны Эрдоган даже не извинился, казалось, ничто не сможет изменить ужасные отношения двух стран. Турция фактически воевала в Сирии против Асада, которого поддерживала Россия, а после сбитого самолета, можно сказать, и против России. Российским туристам порекомендовали не ездить в Турцию, а их продукты стали «нон грата» в России.

Но оказывается, нет друзей (или врагов), есть стратегические интересы стран. После неудачного гос. переворота летом этого года Эрдоган вдруг проявил любовь к России (говорят, это Россия спасла его, предупредив за несколько часов до переворота), попросил прощения за самолет, предложил денег, и дружбу скрепили снова поясом «Турецкого потока». Более того, тройка – «Россия- Турция-Иран» оказались manifestazioni-dopo-labbattimento-del-su-24-russoсамым действенным форматом обсуждения сирийской проблемы.

И тут убийство российского посла в Анкаре Андрея Карлова, в прямом эфире, на выставке «Россия глазами турок». Неожиданное настолько, что Эрдоган сразу позвонил Путину, извинялся, и послал министра иностранных дел в Москву, загладить сложившуюся ситуацию, где главы МИД 3 стран на следующий день должны были обсудить Сирию.

Напомним, что после убийства Александра Грибоедова в Тегеране, в 1829 году, персидский шах послал в Россию любимого внука с богатыми дарами, и среди них уникальный алмаз «Паша», самое дорогое, что у него было.  Что подарит Эрдоган сейчас, пока непонятно.infografica_interscambio_russia_turchia

Еще 2 декабря стало известно, что Эрдоган сменил совет директоров и, по сути, национализировал Akfel Holding, крупнейшего частного импортера газа в стране, в котором владеют долями “Газпром” и Газпромбанк. Шаг, который уж точно не понравился российским компаниям. А если построив «Турецкий поток», турки захотят и его национализировать? А тут еще и посла убили.

Ну и напоследок, ответ Владимира Путина на пресс-конференции 23 декабря, об убийстве российского посла: « Думаю, что это, конечно, прежде всего было покушение на Россию, на российско-турецкие отношения. Безусловно.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend a news conference in the Konstantin palace outside St. Petersburg, Russia, Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2016. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Tuesday after talks with Russia's President Vladimir Putin that the two nations can rebuild their damaged ties and make them even closer, promising to back major energy projects with Russia. (Alexei Nikolsky/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)Знаете, откровенно скажу, я скептически относился к тезису, что и наш самолёт был сбит без приказа со стороны высшего турецкого руководства, а людьми, которые хотели навредить российско-турецким отношениям. Но сейчас, после нападения на посла, которое было совершено сотрудником спецназа, я уже начинаю менять своё мнение. Мне уже кажется, что всё возможно. И проникновение деструктивных элементов в государственные структуры, в том числе в правоохранительные органы, в армию Турции, конечно, носит глубокий характер. Я сейчас не считаю себя вправе переводить на кого-то стрелки, кого-то в чём-то обвинять, но мы видим, что это факт, это происходит.assad-guarda-con-diffidenza-erdogan

Помешает ли это развитию российско-турецких отношений? Нет, не помешает. Потому что мы понимаем важность и значение российско-турецких отношений и будем всячески стремиться к тому, чтобы их развивать, имея в виду, конечно, турецкие интересы, но и не в последнюю очередь российские. Нам удавалось в последний год, точнее, после нормализации отношений, находить эти компромиссы. Рассчитываю, что эти компромиссы мы также успешно будем находить и в будущем».

Евгений Уткин, зам. Директора Eurasia News



 

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